Reality is Hard to Model

Don’t let anybody fool you into assuming that you can predict the future. At best, you can make a sufficiently informed decision that you are more likely to survive afterward than perish. That’s not even accounting for unpredictable events, such as, say, the arrival of Europeans onto your indigenous Caribbean island with active smallpox virus. Even if you anticipated such an event, what could you do? Prepare all symptomatic treatments available? At what cost versus known and immediate predictable hazards?

We’re all doing the best we can with the information available, which just proves that your best option when faced with any threat to your survival is to utterly eliminate that threat without hesitation or remorse. There are plenty other threats you can’t see. Don’t suffer the threats you do see.

Don't bother.

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